Representative electoral statistics

The statistical offices of the Länder and the Federal Statistical Office are responsible for both organising the production of representative electoral statistics and compiling the results.

Votes are counted

• by the municipalities to establish the voter turnout
• by the statistical offices of the Länder to establish the number of votes cast and the number of invalid votes; municipalities with a statistical unit do the counting themselves.

The voters’ registers and the official ballot papers returned in the polling districts are processed to obtain the data. This means that representative electoral statistics are more precise than for instance the figures of research institutes who ask voters how they have voted.

The following characteristics are covered to analyse the voter turnout:

• persons entitled to vote
• polling card note
• participation in the election
• sex
• a maximum of 10 year of birth groups, comprising at least 3 birth years each, in the European Parliament election of 2019:

The following characteristics are covered to analyse votes cast and invalid votes:

• vote cast
• invalid vote
• reason for invalidity
• sex
• a maximum of 6 year of birth groups, comprising at least 7 birth years each, in the European Parliament election of 2019:

Representative electoral statistics are based on a sample survey. A maximum of 5 % of the 86,000 ballot box and postal ballot districts in all of Germany are chosen for representative purposes. These polling districts are selected at random by mathematical and technical methods and determined in agreement with the Land returning officers and the Land statistical offices. In the lastest European Parliament election, approximately 2.5 million of about 62.0 million people entitled to vote were included in the survey.

The voter turnout by sex and year of birth group is established by means of the voters’ registers.

For this purpose, the electoral boards send the voters' registers to the municipal authorities once the official result has been established. The latter analyse the voters’ registers to find out how many people were entitled to vote in the polling district, by sex and year of birth group, how many of them took part in the election (there is a note indicating that they cast their vote) or had a polling card note.

They submit the results to the statistical office of the Land which determines a Land result.

The official ballot papers are used to analyse the votes cast by sex and year of birth group. All ballot papers of a polling district which is in the sample have one of the 12 distinctive marks printed on them at the top (“male” or “female” for the sex and one of the 6 year of birth groups). To facilitate the distribution of the ballot papers and the counting of the votes, a letter may also be printed on the ballot paper which serves as a code.

After the official result has been established, the electoral boards send the ballot papers to the statistical offices of the Länder or, in municipalities which have their own statistical unit, to the municipalities. These sort the ballot papers by population group and determine the election result for each group. If a vote is invalid, the reason is also taken down, for example no crosses made, several crosses made or ballot paper crossed out.

The statistical office of the Land then calculates a Land result from these figures.
 

The overriding principle of all democratic elections is the secrecy of the vote. In the case of representative electoral statistics, the legislator has adopted several measures to ensure that the secrecy of the ballot is not violated.

1. Only ballot box districts with a minimum of 400 people entitled to vote and postal ballot districts with at least 400 voters may be included in the sample.
2. There must not be too many year of birth groups and they must not be too small. For analysing the voter turnout, there may be no more than 10 year of birth groups comprising a minimum of 3 birth years each. For analysing the votes cast, there may be 6 year of birth groups at most, comprising at least 7 birth years each.

These measures guarantee that the population groups to be analysed are large enough so that no information can be derived on individual persons entitled to vote or individual voters. In addition, there are some administrative rules.

3. Counting for representative purposes is the sole responsibility of the municipalities and the statistical offices of the Länder. After the votes have been counted without any statistical evaluation having been made, the electoral documents are packaged up and sealed by the electoral boards and then sent to the statistical authorities for further analysis.
4. Voters’ registers and ballot papers must not be brought together at any time. The counting has to be carried out in strictly separate areas.
5. Representative electoral statistics must not be published for individual polling districts. Municipalities may release their representative election results subject to strict conditions. The statistical offices of the Länder and the Federal Statistical Office publish results for each Land and for Germany.

Municipalities have to notify people entitled to vote of the fact that their polling district is in the sample for representative statistics. The information is usually provided with the voter’s notification or the polling card documents. The polling districts where representative election statistics are compiled may also be published in official announcements of the municipality or in the press. On election day a notice is posted in front of the respective polling stations and information material is displayed.

You cannot vote in a representative polling district using a ballot paper without distinctive features printed on it. The electoral boards do not have ballot papers without such features.

Generally, a polling card may be applied for in due time before the election. It can be used to vote in any other polling district of the administrative district or town or by post.

Representative electoral statistics for all of Germany are published approximately 4 months after election day.

See also: Representative election statistics of the European Parliament election 2019