Press release no. 22/25 of 21. Februar 2025

Background information on the 2025 Bundestag election: forecast, projection, result

WIESBADEN – Forecast, projection, provisional result. We often hear these terms in the media, especially on election day. But what is the difference in meaning? According to the Federal Returning Officer, the differences can be explained as follows:

Forecasts by electoral research institutes are first estimates of the election result on election day right after the polling stations have closed at 6 p.m. They are based on a range of data including exit polls, where voters are surveyed by the electoral research institutes outside the polling stations immediately after they have cast their votes. These forecasts indicate a first trend with regard to the election result.

Projections made by the electoral research institutes on election night use official election results that are already available. For this purpose, the official results determined for a representative selection of constituencies are extrapolated and released after 6 p.m. As more official results come in, the projection becomes increasingly accurate.

The provisional election result is determined on election night by the Federal Returning Officer and announced as soon as the vote count is completed. This is based on the reports by the Land Returning Officers, which contain the results for all the constituencies in the electoral area. The Federal Returning Officer will offer all current results for download by the media, researchers and interested users.

The final election result is then established by the Federal Electoral Committee on the basis of the written records of all constituency and Land electoral committees. That result may differ from the provisional result announced on election night. The Federal Returning Officer announces the final election result for the entire electoral area in the Federal Gazette about three weeks after election day.

More information can be found on the website of the Federal Returning Officer at www.bundeswahlleiterin.de.

The Federal Returning Officer has also launched a new WhatsApp channel to inform the public about the early election to the German Bundestag on 23 February 2025. The latest information about the election procedure, important dates and deadlines, and statements correcting any misinformation are now available on the “Bundeswahlleiterin” channel. Click “Subscribe” to follow us.

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